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新书速递|【经济学人】:世界的未来秩序,就在于欧亚大陆

2020-02-13来源:新闻快讯网亲子母婴

【世界决定视界】【视界决定世界】

欢迎打开“我与我们的世界”,从此,让我们一起纵览世界之风云变幻、洞察社会之脉搏律动、感受个体之生活命运、挖掘自然之点滴奥妙。

我与我们的世界,既是一个奋斗的世界,也是一个思考的世界。奋而不思则罔,思而不奋则殆。这个世界,你大,它就大;你小,它就小。

欢迎通过上方公众号名称,来挖掘本公众号与大家共享的往期文章,因为,每期都能让你“走近”不一样的世界、带给你不一样的精彩。


本期导读:欧亚大陆或亚欧大陆,是亚细亚洲大陆和欧罗巴洲大陆的合称。面积5473.8万平方公里。亚、欧二大陆单从地理学方面来归类应属同一个、地球表面面积最大的洲。亚洲与欧洲的分别主要出于社会学区别这两个地区人文历史的需求。


从板块构造学说来看,亚欧大陆由亚欧板块、印度板块、阿拉伯板块和东西伯利亚所在的北美板块所组成。注意,在此说的亚欧大陆并不完全是亚洲与欧洲的并称,而是大陆的连着的陆地部分,所以亚欧大陆并不包含两大洲的“岛屿”。



另外,亚欧大陆亦有其他意思。它亦可以是前苏联解体后各个加盟共和国所在的地域的雅称。而传统上,亚欧大陆这一块大陆地有不同的种族居住,组成了西亚、南亚、东南亚、东亚及欧洲等多个不同的经济、政治文化圈。


Together under heaven

天下和

Three books examine the emergence and future of the Eurasian world order

下面所介绍的三本新书,其主题都是关于欧亚大陆的崛起,以及世界的未来秩序



小编注:译文部分仅供参考;本公众号更多“新书速递”、“经济学人”、“地缘政治”等相关文章,见文末“往期精彩”;本期共享资料下载方式,见文末注释部分。


The New Silk Roads. By Peter Frankopan

《新丝绸之路》,著者:彼得·弗朗克潘

The Future is Asian. By Parag Khanna

《未来属于亚洲》,著者:帕拉格·卡安那

Belt and Road: A Chinese World Order. By Bruno Maçães

《一带一路:中国的世界秩序》,著者:布鲁诺·玛萨艾斯


Asked how he came to write “The Lord of the Rings”, J.R.R. Tolkien replied: “I wisely started with a map and made the story fit.” And so, says Bruno Maçães, when imagining new realities it is natural to begin the same way. These days a revised map of the world might have a radically different focus from previous ones—because a vast, integrated Eurasian supercontinent is proving to be the salient feature of an emerging global order.


Once, when East was East and West was West, the chasm between them was not only geographical, but moral and historical too. “Asia” was a term invented by Europeans to emphasise their own distinctiveness; to Kipling-era imperialists, Asian societies were backward, despotic and unchanging. By contrast, Europe had made the decisive break to pursue a scientific approach to human affairs—which justified its dominion over other continents. Condescension was met with emulation: since Japan’s Meiji Restoration in 1868, Asia’s modernisation was long a matter of copying the West, either out of admiration for Europeans or to repel them or both. Asia’s economic transformations since the second world war were partly shaped by the needs of Western markets.


But now the modernisation that Europe first brought to Asia is racing back the other way. The Eurasian land mass is fizzing with new connections, thanks to fibre-optic cables, pipelines, roads, bridges and manufacturing zones linking East with West. Two years ago a freight train that began its journey in Yiwu in eastern China pulled into a depot in east London. The feat was largely symbolic. But nobody should doubt that Asia and Europe are being brought onto a common plane.


That process is the starting point of three stimulating new books, which make it clear that the map of world politics as it has been drawn for seven decades is no longer fit for purpose. From the old map’s centre, as Mr Maçães describes it, the power of the United States radiated to the European and East Asian edges of Eurasia, acting as “a kind of forward deployment against the dangers emanating from its inner core”—that is, the communist challenges from Moscow and Beijing.


Today, the increasingly integrated nature of the Eurasian supercontinent that has emerged from the cold war—all the glitzy cities springing up out of deserts, all those ports being built along Indo-Pacific coasts—should not be a surprise to students of capitalism and development. What many Western prognosticators got wrong, however, was assuming this world would be made in the West’s image; that it would embrace not just Western economics but also liberal political values, with their supposedly universal appeal and validity. You only have to look at the two biggest players by land mass, China and Russia, to see the folly of that presumption. Other illiberal powers, notably Turkey and Iran, are using past historical glories to conjure a resurgent future, projecting power along the new silk roads.


Economic integration seems not to be dissolving such differences in values, but heightening them. Nor is it clear that America and Europe can do much about it. Spreading democratic ideals is not a consistent priority for the United States; it increasingly wants to wield power from a distance. Western Europe is turning in on itself in part—and here is the deep irony—as a response to crises sweeping in from Eurasia, among them waves of immigrants and Russia’s meddling both in Europe’s borderlands and its internal politics.


Mr Maçães, a Portuguese political scientist and former foreign minister, sketched some of his arguments in “The Dawn of Eurasia” (published last year). In “Belt and Road” he looks chiefly at China’s part in reshaping the world. Until now, its signature foreign-policy project has been known in English as the Belt and Road Initiative. That final word already sounds too diminutive. Encompassing scores of countries and $1trn of real or promised infrastructure spending, the aim, first, is to create a new global economy with China at its heart. For all China’s denials, the Belt and Road is also a major piece of geopolitical engineering. It reflects China’s desire to shape its external environment rather than simply adapting to it; some worry that it is China’s means to replace an American-led international order with its own. As a phrase, “the Belt and Road” may come to be used in the same, shorthand way as “the West” is today.



Debt and diplomacy

债务与外交

Start with the map, and the story follows. Yet there is no plan or plot, says Mr Maçães. President Xi and his acolytes are no Marxist determinists. Lenin is the better role model as they seize a fleeting chance to change the course of history.


And how. As Peter Frankopan, an Oxford historian, deliciously puts it in “The New Silk Roads”, when Mike Pompeo, the secretary of state, last July unveiled America’s counter to the Belt and Road, the sum promised—$113m in new programmes—was only somewhat more than the combined earnings of Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner. Just as “Belt and Road” augments Mr Maçães’s earlier work, so “The New Silk Roads” updates Mr Frankopan’s magnificent history “The Silk Roads” (2015), which altered many readers’ views of where the world’s historical centre of gravity lay.


China is now repurposing an old tenet. The ancient concept of tianxia, or “all under heaven”, put China at the heart of power and civilisation. Moral precepts governed relations among states. There are echoes of that in Mr Xi’s notion of a “Community of Shared Future for Mankind”, and in the constant emphasis on “win-win” outcomes, mutual dependence and respect. Countries’ obligations depend on their place in a China-centred network.


The gratitude and dependency of others are convenient for China as it seeks to recycle its foreign-currency surplus, employ its workers on construction sites abroad, secure raw materials and fob off low-grade production onto others so that it may keep the best high-tech manufacturing and services at home. The Trump administration calls this approach “debt-trap diplomacy”. But that misses the appeal for many recipients of Chinese largesse. For a start, no one else is offering so much of it.


What is more, as Parag Khanna says in “The Future is Asian”, an upbeat examination of a changing “Greater Asia”, others welcome China’s infrastructural forays “because they provide cover to pursue their own commercial agendas.” Nor does the fact of India, Japan, South Korea and Turkey jumping into an infrastructural arms race imply a zero-sum contest. Rather, says Mr Khanna, a Singapore-based geostrategist, China is thereby “kick-starting the process by which Asians will come out from under its shadow.”


Mr Khanna is too blithe about the drawbacks of authoritarianism. He imputes too much technocratic brilliance to the region’s elites and glosses over the brutal dimensions of development, including China’s high-tech repression against Uighurs. But on an important point, he agrees with Mr Maçães and Mr Frankopan: Eurasia’s future is likely to be more ductile than fixed and hegemonic. In this new world order, actions still lead to reactions. The increasing alignment of democratic Japan, Australia and India as a response to Chinese assertiveness is only one case in point.


Ineluctably, Eurasia is cohering, but that does not have to be under the stifling “togetherness” of tianxia. In their different ways, these books all serve as an antidote to American fears of a Manichaean contest with China. They give shape to latent forces that are already impossible to ignore.

小编注:

给大家推荐几本不错的书,可忙里偷闲挑一两本买来看看,打发、打发时间,同时,也可开拓、开拓新“视(世)界”:


往期精彩:


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眼见不再为实|【外交事务】:照片可P,视频可P,直播也可P

谈自大|【新青年】:个人的自大,与合群的自大,差异甚大

世界2019|【经济学人】:世界2019,都有哪些看头儿?

中国崛起|【经济学人】:中国华为的三副面孔,该如何辨清?

新书速递|【经济学人】:美国历史上的部族大屠杀,仍在回响

新书速递|【经济学人】:全球人口对世界局势的形塑作用

新书速递|【全球脑库】:欧洲老大德国对欧洲未来的思考

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深度民调|【皮尤中心】:美国人民把人生意义,都放在哪里?

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菲律宾一瞥|【信仰的力量】:民众对“拿撒勒”的信仰超乎想象

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